Weekly Market Digest
Top trades, whale moves, and market insights every Monday
ArmageddonRewardsBilly
0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418
@EltonmaEliteWhaleHot Streak$100K Club
Trader Score
Win Rate: 45.8%
ROI: 0.2%
Trades: 629
Win Rate
45.8%
288W341L629 total
Open Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Price | Current | PnL |
|---|
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | $176K | $0.99 | $1.00 | $2K |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | $119K | $0.42 | $0.32 | $-13K |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | $89K | $0.91 | $0.99 | $7K |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | No | $86K | $0.76 | $0.95 | $17K |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | $77K | $0.66 | $0.91 | $19K |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? |
Recent Activity (50)
BoughtWill Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?Yes
+$1K@ 0.7427m ago
SoldU.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?No
$-1K@ 0.9527m ago
BoughtIran leadership change by December 31?Yes
+$2K@ 0.5027m ago
BoughtWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?No
+$1K@ 0.92
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | $64K | $0.88 | $0.92 | $2K |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | $61K | $0.77 | $0.79 | $906 |
| Crude Oil all time high by March 31? | No | $56K | $0.97 | $0.99 | $1K |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? | No | $47K | $0.86 | $0.98 | $6K |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? | No | $46K | $0.92 | $0.99 | $3K |
| Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? | Yes | $41K | $0.10 | $0.04 | $-3K |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | No | $38K | $0.83 | $0.88 | $2K |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | $36K | $0.80 | $0.69 | $-4K |
| Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? | Yes | $35K | $0.10 | $0.01 | $-3K |
| Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? | Yes | $34K | $0.20 | $0.18 | $-347 |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | $30K | $0.09 | $0.64 | $17K |
| Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? | Yes | $30K | $0.13 | $0.10 | $-794 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | $30K | $0.36 | $0.73 | $11K |
| Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | $26K | $0.02 | $0.01 | $-165 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | No | $26K | $0.92 | $0.70 | $-6K |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | $25K | $0.42 | $0.85 | $11K |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? | No | $25K | $0.96 | $1.00 | $929 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | $23K | $0.92 | $0.89 | $-579 |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | $23K | $0.09 | $0.19 | $2K |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | $23K | $0.09 | $0.05 | $-903 |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | $23K | $0.09 | $0.13 | $896 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? | Yes | $22K | $0.84 | $0.33 | $-11K |
| Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | $21K | $0.02 | $0.05 | $752 |
| Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | $20K | $0.03 | $0.20 | $4K |
| Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | $20K | $0.03 | $0.17 | $3K |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | No | $20K | $0.90 | $0.92 | $400 |
| Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | $20K | $0.01 | $0.03 | $426 |
| Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | $20K | $0.01 | $0.06 | $886 |
| Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | $20K | $0.03 | $0.05 | $530 |
| Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | $20K | $0.03 | $0.20 | $3K |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | $20K | $0.10 | $0.07 | $-560 |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? | No | $19K | $0.76 | $0.86 | $2K |
| Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | $18K | $0.03 | $0.00 | $-530 |
| Will Texas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | $18K | $0.01 | $0.00 | $-33 |
| 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31? | No | $17K | $0.95 | $0.95 | $-72 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? | No | $17K | $0.87 | $0.93 | $895 |
| Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2026? | No | $16K | $0.92 | $0.99 | $1K |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | $15K | $0.69 | $0.66 | $-542 |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85%? | No | $14K | $0.84 | $0.95 | $2K |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | $14K | $0.77 | $0.78 | $20 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | $13K | $0.88 | $0.91 | $315 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | $13K | $0.66 | $0.54 | $-1K |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | $12K | $0.01 | $0.01 | $-18 |
| Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? | No | $12K | $0.80 | $0.82 | $335 |
| Will Trump visit China by June 30? | Yes | $12K | $0.75 | $0.72 | $-304 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026? | No | $11K | $0.96 | $0.98 | $242 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | No | $11K | $0.95 | $0.95 | $27 |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | $11K | $0.04 | $0.01 | $-316 |
| Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | $10K | $0.01 | $0.02 | $123 |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | $10K | $0.68 | $0.66 | $-300 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | $10K | $0.19 | $0.18 | $-90 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | $10K | $0.11 | $0.10 | $-115 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | $10K | $0.39 | $0.34 | $-600 |
| Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | $10K | $0.05 | $0.10 | $564 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? | Yes | $10K | $0.69 | $0.18 | $-5K |
| Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? | No | $10K | $0.76 | $0.76 | $-55 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | No | $9K | $0.28 | $0.23 | $-515 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | $9K | $0.14 | $0.11 | $-270 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? | No | $9K | $0.84 | $0.89 | $450 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | $9K | $0.59 | $0.50 | $-850 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | $9K | $0.26 | $0.25 | $-89 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in March 2026? | No | $8K | $0.74 | $0.84 | $877 |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31? | Yes | $8K | $0.37 | $0.06 | $-3K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | $8K | $0.67 | $0.67 | $-64 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | $8K | $0.98 | $0.99 | $99 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? | No | $8K | $0.71 | $0.43 | $-2K |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31? | Yes | $8K | $0.34 | $0.92 | $4K |
| Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | No | $7K | $0.50 | $0.49 | $-51 |
| Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? | No | $7K | $0.71 | $0.64 | $-540 |
| Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | Yes | $7K | $0.11 | $0.12 | $70 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | $7K | $0.47 | $0.46 | $-135 |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March? | Yes | $7K | $0.95 | $0.97 | $115 |
| Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? | Yes | $6K | $0.93 | $0.90 | $-215 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? | No | $6K | $0.94 | $0.95 | $85 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | $6K | $0.38 | $0.37 | $-75 |
| Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | No | $6K | $0.61 | $0.57 | $-240 |
| Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more? | Yes | $6K | $0.38 | $0.23 | $-866 |
| Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? | Yes | $6K | $0.68 | $0.88 | $1K |
| Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? | Yes | $6K | $0.24 | $0.68 | $3K |
| Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | Yes | $6K | $0.23 | $0.29 | $364 |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? | No | $5K | $0.93 | $0.94 | $67 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | $5K | $0.92 | $0.94 | $88 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | No | $5K | $0.53 | $0.42 | $-573 |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by May 1? | No | $5K | $0.89 | $0.93 | $167 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | No | $5K | $0.85 | $0.83 | $-120 |
| Will the DHS shutdown end between March 28-31, 2026? | Yes | $5K | $0.09 | $0.20 | $600 |
| Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | Yes | $5K | $0.22 | $0.27 | $221 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | $5K | $0.86 | $0.85 | $-63 |
| Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026? | Yes | $5K | $0.08 | $0.10 | $79 |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | Yes | $5K | $0.72 | $0.79 | $303 |
| Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by March 31? | No | $5K | $0.96 | $0.97 | $67 |
| Will there be at least 1650 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026? | No | $5K | $0.86 | $0.92 | $311 |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | Yes | $5K | $0.75 | $0.72 | $-122 |
| Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.4% by March 31? | No | $5K | $0.94 | $0.61 | $-2K |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | $4K | $0.97 | $0.94 | $-150 |
| Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June? | Yes | $4K | $0.13 | $0.09 | $-190 |
| Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | $4K | $0.06 | $0.01 | $-204 |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | No | $4K | $0.65 | $0.60 | $-183 |
| Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | Yes | $4K | $0.19 | $0.14 | $-226 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? | No | $4K | $0.76 | $0.68 | $-376 |
| Will MrBeast hit 477 Million subscribers by March 31? | No | $4K | $0.86 | $0.99 | $552 |
| Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026? | Yes | $4K | $0.97 | $0.98 | $16 |
| Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | $4K | $0.93 | $0.94 | $67 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | $4K | $0.87 | $0.73 | $-567 |
| Over $3M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | Yes | $4K | $0.90 | $0.86 | $-141 |
| Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | $4K | $0.58 | $0.41 | $-700 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | Yes | $4K | $0.58 | $0.55 | $-127 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | $4K | $0.85 | $0.85 | $0 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | $4K | $0.81 | $0.86 | $200 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | No | $4K | $0.48 | $0.53 | $160 |
| Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? | No | $4K | $0.32 | $0.28 | $-180 |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? | No | $4K | $0.92 | $0.93 | $31 |
| Will a 10% US blanket tariff be in effect on March 31? | Yes | $4K | $0.92 | $0.98 | $227 |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by May 1? | No | $4K | $0.89 | $0.94 | $201 |
| Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | No | $4K | $0.33 | $0.30 | $-101 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? | No | $4K | $0.93 | $0.91 | $-91 |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%? | No | $4K | $0.90 | $0.97 | $263 |
| Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? | Yes | $3K | $0.18 | $0.17 | $-25 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026? | Yes | $3K | $0.19 | $0.04 | $-509 |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | No | $3K | $0.79 | $0.77 | $-79 |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 200M by May 1? | No | $3K | $0.95 | $0.96 | $43 |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30? | No | $3K | $0.73 | $0.72 | $-39 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? | No | $3K | $0.93 | $0.74 | $-583 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | $3K | $0.49 | $0.07 | $-1K |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | No | $3K | $0.79 | $0.79 | $-26 |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31? | No | $3K | $0.97 | $0.97 | $14 |
| Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | $3K | $0.01 | $0.02 | $25 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | $3K | $0.67 | $0.70 | $100 |
| Over $4M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | Yes | $3K | $0.86 | $0.84 | $-60 |
| US strike on Cuba by March 31? | No | $3K | $0.97 | $0.99 | $54 |
| 2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds under 10% by March 31? | No | $3K | $0.96 | $0.98 | $75 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? | No | $3K | $0.83 | $0.82 | $-39 |
| Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June? | Yes | $3K | $0.15 | $0.14 | $-18 |
| Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? | No | $3K | $0.97 | $0.98 | $18 |
| Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? | No | $3K | $0.89 | $0.90 | $12 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | No | $3K | $0.80 | $0.78 | $-51 |
| Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? | No | $3K | $0.83 | $0.89 | $166 |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1? | Yes | $3K | $0.80 | $0.50 | $-848 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026? | Yes | $3K | $0.05 | $0.01 | $-110 |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | $3K | $0.84 | $0.88 | $121 |
| Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? | Yes | $3K | $0.82 | $0.83 | $27 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | $3K | $0.34 | $0.34 | $-13 |
| Will USD-denominated stablecoin market share fall below 99% in 2026? | No | $3K | $0.78 | $0.67 | $-316 |
| Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30? | Yes | $3K | $0.05 | $0.03 | $-53 |
| Over $40M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | No | $3K | $0.86 | $0.83 | $-69 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | $3K | $0.52 | $0.48 | $-106 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? | No | $3K | $0.58 | $0.55 | $-88 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | No | $3K | $0.56 | $0.56 | $-27 |
| Over $30M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | No | $3K | $0.80 | $0.78 | $-53 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | No | $3K | $0.56 | $0.44 | $-297 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? | Yes | $3K | $0.48 | $0.39 | $-222 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? | No | $3K | $0.94 | $0.96 | $29 |
| US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? | No | $2K | $0.53 | $0.41 | $-307 |
| Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30? | No | $2K | $0.89 | $0.94 | $118 |
| Will gas hit (Low) $3.05 by March 31? | No | $2K | $0.98 | $0.99 | $30 |
| Will the Rolex Index hit $13,150 (HIGH) by April 30? | No | $2K | $0.96 | $0.97 | $20 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027? | Yes | $2K | $0.93 | $0.65 | $-675 |
| Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 3% on any day in Q1? | No | $2K | $0.81 | $0.92 | $275 |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? | No | $2K | $0.72 | $0.70 | $-38 |
| Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | No | $2K | $0.68 | $0.78 | $211 |
| Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? | Yes | $2K | $0.87 | $0.88 | $21 |
| Over $35M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | No | $2K | $0.82 | $0.78 | $-99 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | No | $2K | $0.69 | $0.70 | $24 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire? | Yes | $2K | $0.15 | $0.13 | $-50 |
| Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | No | $2K | $0.93 | $0.90 | $-66 |
| Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by March 31? | No | $2K | $0.62 | $0.80 | $386 |
| Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | No | $2K | $0.88 | $0.84 | $-93 |
| Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon? | Yes | $2K | $0.20 | $0.16 | $-76 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | $2K | $0.34 | $0.34 | $-7 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026? | Yes | $2K | $0.29 | $0.19 | $-217 |
| Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31? | No | $2K | $0.96 | $0.96 | $11 |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | No | $2K | $0.50 | $0.73 | $489 |
| Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | Yes | $2K | $0.81 | $0.82 | $23 |
| Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31? | No | $2K | $0.27 | $0.10 | $-353 |
| Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | No | $2K | $0.76 | $0.87 | $221 |
| Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? | No | $2K | $0.95 | $0.93 | $-38 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? | No | $2K | $0.92 | $0.92 | $-10 |
| Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | No | $2K | $0.92 | $0.93 | $5 |
| Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30? | Yes | $2K | $0.07 | $0.07 | $-10 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? | No | $2K | $0.77 | $0.79 | $40 |
| Will Elon Musk pay TSA salaries? | Yes | $2K | $0.05 | $0.03 | $-42 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | No | $2K | $0.34 | $0.14 | $-410 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? | No | $2K | $0.81 | $0.78 | $-65 |
| Jimmy Lai released by June 30? | No | $2K | $0.94 | $0.93 | $-15 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | Yes | $2K | $0.46 | $0.41 | $-95 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in March 2026? | Yes | $2K | $0.04 | $0.03 | $-23 |
| Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | No | $2K | $0.99 | $0.99 | $-1 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | $2K | $0.87 | $0.88 | $10 |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | Yes | $2K | $0.58 | $0.47 | $-214 |
| Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? | Yes | $2K | $0.16 | $0.20 | $78 |
| Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by March 31? | No | $2K | $0.92 | $0.91 | $-25 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? | No | $2K | $0.83 | $0.88 | $84 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026? | Yes | $2K | $0.12 | $0.07 | $-91 |
| Will MrBeast hit 117 billion views by March 31? | No | $2K | $0.97 | $0.98 | $35 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | Yes | $2K | $0.83 | $0.83 | $-9 |
| Will DeepSeek have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? | No | $2K | $0.96 | $0.99 | $70 |
| Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? | Yes | $2K | $0.22 | $0.13 | $-177 |
| Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? | Yes | $2K | $0.89 | $1.00 | $198 |
| US x Cuba military clash in 2026? | No | $2K | $0.64 | $0.65 | $11 |
| Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | $2K | $0.01 | $0.01 | $-13 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | $2K | $0.81 | $0.61 | $-333 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? | No | $2K | $0.75 | $0.71 | $-74 |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? | No | $2K | $0.87 | $0.92 | $80 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? | No | $2K | $0.88 | $0.86 | $-40 |
| Hillary Clinton charged by March 31? | No | $2K | $0.97 | $0.99 | $39 |
| Will MrBeast hit 116 billion views by March 31? | Yes | $2K | $0.59 | $0.75 | $262 |
| Natural Disaster in 2026? | No | $2K | $0.69 | $0.69 | $6 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | $2K | $0.74 | $0.56 | $-266 |
| US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026? | No | $2K | $0.74 | $0.74 | $8 |
| Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? | Yes | $2K | $0.41 | $0.74 | $519 |
| Epstein client list released by June 30? | No | $2K | $0.88 | $0.89 | $19 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? | No | $2K | $0.90 | $0.92 | $22 |
| Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026? | No | $2K | $0.53 | $0.53 | $-4 |
| Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? | Yes | $2K | $0.82 | $0.74 | $-113 |
| Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by March 31? | No | $2K | $0.96 | $0.90 | $-86 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | $2K | $0.84 | $0.85 | $29 |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | No | $2K | $0.93 | $0.97 | $57 |
| Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? | No | $2K | $0.89 | $0.92 | $36 |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | $1K | $0.80 | $0.79 | $-10 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | $1K | $0.69 | $0.67 | $-37 |
| Military action against Iran ends on March 30, 2026? | No | $1K | $0.96 | $0.96 | $-4 |
| Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | $1K | $0.34 | $0.35 | $22 |
| Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | $1K | $0.01 | $0.00 | $-15 |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | Yes | $1K | $0.44 | $0.30 | $-196 |
| Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? | No | $1K | $0.28 | $0.26 | $-33 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | Yes | $1K | $0.58 | $0.24 | $-463 |
| Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? | Yes | $1K | $0.43 | $0.37 | $-84 |
| Will DeepSeek have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026? | No | $1K | $0.96 | $0.99 | $44 |
| Will Bernie Sanders vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026? | No | $1K | $0.93 | $0.86 | $-90 |
| Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31? | No | $1K | $0.89 | $0.95 | $92 |
| Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30? | No | $1K | $0.94 | $0.97 | $28 |
| NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? | No | $1K | $0.95 | $0.96 | $10 |
| Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? | Yes | $1K | $0.40 | $0.46 | $75 |
| Will Iran strike Afghanistan in March? | Yes | $1K | $0.02 | $0.01 | $-11 |
| 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 70% by March 31? | No | $1K | $0.95 | $0.98 | $37 |
| Will Marco Rubio visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | No | $1K | $0.83 | $0.91 | $96 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | $1K | $0.83 | $0.86 | $39 |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31? | No | $1K | $0.98 | $0.97 | $-6 |
| Will there be at least 1550 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026? | No | $1K | $0.24 | $0.03 | $-251 |
| 50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by March 31? | No | $1K | $0.98 | $1.00 | $21 |
| Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? | No | $1K | $0.93 | $0.93 | $-4 |
| Will the DHS shutdown last 48 days or more? | Yes | $1K | $0.77 | $0.68 | $-106 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | $1K | $0.59 | $0.56 | $-32 |
| Will the DHS shutdown last 44 days or more? | Yes | $1K | $0.78 | $0.81 | $38 |
| Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31? | Yes | $1K | $0.96 | $0.95 | $-11 |
| Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? | No | $1K | $0.87 | $1.00 | $149 |
| Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 61–70 times during March Madness? | Yes | $1K | $0.23 | $0.28 | $65 |
| Hurupay FDV above $5M one day after launch? | No | $1K | $0.61 | $0.75 | $165 |
| Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | $1K | $0.95 | $0.96 | $1 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | No | $1K | $0.67 | $0.58 | $-102 |
| Maduro guilty of all counts? | Yes | $1K | $0.43 | $0.34 | $-111 |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | Yes | $1K | $0.79 | $0.70 | $-109 |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on March 31? | No | $1K | $0.94 | $1.00 | $67 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? | No | $1K | $0.77 | $0.88 | $123 |
| Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30? | No | $1K | $0.93 | $0.93 | $-4 |
| Space FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | $1K | $0.90 | $0.89 | $-6 |
| Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? | No | $1K | $0.88 | $0.88 | $-4 |
| Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 71–80 times during March Madness? | Yes | $1K | $0.21 | $0.02 | $-211 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? | No | $1K | $0.77 | $0.71 | $-63 |
| Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? | No | $1K | $0.96 | $0.89 | $-76 |
| Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.50 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026? | No | $1K | $0.24 | $0.18 | $-62 |
| Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | Yes | $1K | $0.99 | $0.99 | $4 |
| Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | $1K | $0.93 | $0.97 | $38 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? | No | $1K | $0.81 | $0.82 | $16 |
| Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? | Yes | $1K | $0.72 | $0.54 | $-188 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? | $60k | $1K | $0.53 | $0.47 | $-65 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Yes | $1K | $0.88 | $0.88 | $-2 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026? | No | $1K | $0.98 | $0.99 | $9 |
| Military action against Iran ends on March 28, 2026? | No | $1K | $0.95 | $0.98 | $35 |
| Will Iran strike Turkey in March? | No | $1K | $0.93 | $0.95 | $23 |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | $1K | $0.57 | $0.52 | $-50 |
| Kurds declare independence from Iran? | No | $1K | $0.84 | $0.85 | $13 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | $1K | $0.63 | $0.66 | $23 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | No | $1K | $0.90 | $0.93 | $25 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026? | Yes | $1K | $0.96 | $1.00 | $43 |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | $1K | $0.76 | $0.52 | $-240 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026? | No | $1K | $0.88 | $0.86 | $-20 |
| SAVE America Act becomes law by June 30, 2026? | No | $1K | $0.93 | $0.92 | $-8 |
| Tim Walz charged by March 31, 2026? | Yes | $1K | $0.01 | $0.00 | $-4 |
| Will Union Party win the most seats in the Løgting in the 2026 Faroese general election? | No | $1000 | $0.95 | $0.96 | $8 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? | No | $1000 | $0.78 | $0.77 | $-11 |
| Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | No | $1000 | $0.97 | $0.92 | $-48 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 160m and 170m? | No | $1000 | $0.91 | $0.88 | $-37 |
| Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | Yes | $1000 | $0.78 | $0.72 | $-65 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | Yes | $1000 | $0.58 | $0.15 | $-429 |
| Military action against Iran ends by March 25, 2026? | Yes | $1000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $3 |
| Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | Yes | $1000 | $0.93 | $0.93 | $-0 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | $998 | $0.79 | $0.79 | $-6 |
| Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? | No | $993 | $0.88 | $0.92 | $44 |
| Kash Patel out by June 30? | No | $991 | $0.88 | $0.90 | $10 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? | Yes | $981 | $0.69 | $0.58 | $-101 |
| Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? | No | $975 | $0.86 | $0.88 | $18 |
| Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by March 31? | No | $972 | $0.81 | $0.94 | $126 |
| Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 51–60 times during March Madness? | Yes | $971 | $0.19 | $0.30 | $112 |
| Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? | Yes | $954 | $0.35 | $0.11 | $-233 |
| Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 81+ times during March Madness? | Yes | $945 | $0.27 | $0.28 | $17 |
| Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? | No | $942 | $0.98 | $0.97 | $-6 |
| Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? | Yes | $936 | $0.34 | $0.34 | $6 |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026? | Yes | $936 | $0.92 | $0.90 | $-15 |
| Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? | Yes | $934 | $0.19 | $0.01 | $-162 |
| Megaquake by March 31? | No | $928 | $0.96 | $0.97 | $16 |
| Will Silver (SI) settle at $90-$100 in June? | Yes | $927 | $0.11 | $0.12 | $2 |
| Kash Patel out by March 31? | No | $919 | $0.96 | $0.99 | $25 |
| Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? | Yes | $915 | $0.35 | $0.34 | $-12 |
| Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? | Yes | $913 | $0.09 | $0.29 | $182 |
| Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? | Yes | $913 | $0.14 | $0.02 | $-111 |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | Yes | $911 | $0.31 | $0.21 | $-92 |
| Will Iran strike Syria in March? | No | $900 | $0.93 | $0.94 | $12 |
| Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026? | No | $900 | $0.59 | $0.23 | $-320 |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 250M by May 1? | No | $898 | $0.93 | $0.96 | $28 |
| Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31? | No | $877 | $0.92 | $0.93 | $9 |
| Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | $874 | $0.79 | $0.68 | $-101 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | Yes | $864 | $0.20 | $0.20 | $-2 |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | No | $845 | $0.88 | $0.89 | $0 |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | Yes | $830 | $0.25 | $0.21 | $-29 |
| Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026? | No | $804 | $0.74 | $0.76 | $12 |
| Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? | No | $803 | $0.92 | $0.94 | $14 |
| Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | No | $800 | $0.91 | $0.91 | $-4 |
| Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026? | No | $800 | $0.89 | $0.86 | $-28 |
| Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more? | Yes | $800 | $0.13 | $0.07 | $-48 |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? | No | $800 | $0.82 | $0.63 | $-160 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? | Yes | $800 | $0.21 | $0.28 | $52 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1? | Yes | $800 | $0.37 | $0.69 | $254 |
| Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | No | $800 | $0.54 | $0.49 | $-40 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 170m and 180m? | No | $781 | $0.91 | $0.85 | $-48 |
| US military draft authorized in 2026? | No | $777 | $0.89 | $0.89 | $-7 |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | $766 | $0.79 | $0.83 | $35 |
| Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? | No | $746 | $0.77 | $0.82 | $40 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | No | $746 | $0.84 | $0.68 | $-118 |
| Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? | No | $744 | $0.94 | $0.94 | $1 |
| GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch? | Yes | $740 | $0.91 | $0.90 | $-13 |
| Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $728 | $0.92 | $0.88 | $-32 |
| Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026? | No | $714 | $0.92 | $0.94 | $14 |
| Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? | Yes | $713 | $0.19 | $0.00 | $-135 |
| Bill Clinton charged by March 31? | No | $705 | $0.97 | $0.99 | $13 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? | No | $700 | $0.93 | $0.89 | $-26 |
| Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of March 2026? | Yes | $700 | $0.91 | $0.48 | $-300 |
| Will Iran strike Jordan again in March? | No | $699 | $0.62 | $0.54 | $-59 |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? | No | $696 | $0.36 | $0.49 | $92 |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | $696 | $0.75 | $0.52 | $-161 |
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1m barrels per day in 2026? | Yes | $696 | $0.87 | $0.84 | $-17 |
| Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31? | No | $675 | $0.97 | $0.97 | $2 |
| Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? | Yes | $666 | $0.11 | $0.08 | $-21 |
| Will Russia strike Kyiv on March 31, 2026? | No | $662 | $0.88 | $0.80 | $-52 |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31? | No | $646 | $0.97 | $0.98 | $7 |
| Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President? | No | $646 | $0.92 | $0.90 | $-8 |
| Minneapolis Border Patrol Shooter fired/resigns by March 31? | No | $641 | $0.95 | $0.98 | $14 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? | No | $640 | $0.80 | $0.79 | $-11 |
| Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $1.75 (LOW) by April 30, 2026? | No | $634 | $0.93 | $0.92 | $-2 |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | $632 | $0.95 | $0.97 | $9 |
| Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.00 (LOW) by April 30, 2026? | No | $626 | $0.82 | $0.91 | $55 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | $621 | $0.72 | $0.71 | $-9 |
| Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? | Yes | $613 | $0.26 | $0.00 | $-156 |
| Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? | No | $608 | $0.98 | $0.96 | $-7 |
| Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? | Yes | $600 | $0.82 | $0.51 | $-185 |
| Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? | No | $600 | $0.86 | $0.86 | $2 |
| AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? | No | $600 | $0.80 | $0.68 | $-70 |
| Will gas hit (Low) $3.00 by March 31? | No | $599 | $0.97 | $0.99 | $13 |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 40.0 on March 27, 2026? | No | $594 | $0.67 | $0.50 | $-99 |
| Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31? | Yes | $585 | $0.03 | $0.03 | $1 |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | $582 | $0.94 | $0.94 | $3 |
| Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms? | No | $575 | $0.88 | $0.84 | $-23 |
| Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? | No | $573 | $0.87 | $0.88 | $2 |
| Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by March 31? | No | $570 | $0.87 | $0.86 | $-8 |
| Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027? | Yes | $568 | $0.76 | $0.69 | $-36 |
| Will there be at least 1700 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026? | No | $568 | $0.87 | $0.98 | $63 |
| Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility? | Yes | $568 | $0.89 | $0.23 | $-372 |
| 2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026? | No | $566 | $0.90 | $0.92 | $7 |
| Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? | Yes | $561 | $0.14 | $0.02 | $-69 |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by March 31? | No | $561 | $0.86 | $0.83 | $-17 |
| OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? | No | $561 | $0.78 | $0.77 | $-10 |
| Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain? | No | $560 | $0.88 | $0.88 | $2 |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | No | $544 | $0.44 | $0.41 | $-15 |
| Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam? | No | $544 | $0.80 | $0.33 | $-260 |
| Space FDV above $60M one day after launch? | No | $542 | $0.83 | $0.87 | $22 |
| Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? | Yes | $526 | $0.30 | $0.24 | $-33 |
| Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 4% on any day in Q1? | No | $525 | $0.92 | $0.96 | $19 |
| Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.10 (LOW) by April 30, 2026? | No | $519 | $0.84 | $0.90 | $29 |
| Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? | No | $511 | $0.53 | $0.57 | $24 |
| Will the Audemars Piguet Index hit $44,000 (HIGH) by April 30? | No | $502 | $0.96 | $0.91 | $-24 |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | No | $500 | $0.81 | $0.81 | $-3 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | $500 | $0.68 | $0.58 | $-46 |
| Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? | No | $500 | $0.95 | $0.94 | $-7 |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? | No | $500 | $0.77 | $0.80 | $13 |
| Military action against Iran ends on March 29, 2026? | No | $500 | $0.96 | $0.98 | $12 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | $500 | $0.35 | $0.35 | $3 |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? | No | $500 | $0.98 | $0.99 | $6 |
| Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by March 31? | No | $500 | $0.91 | $0.94 | $15 |
| SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? | No | $500 | $0.61 | $0.61 | $3 |
| Will Russia enter Borova by March 31? | No | $500 | $0.96 | $0.96 | $0 |
| Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election? | Yes | $500 | $0.83 | $0.51 | $-160 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? | No | $500 | $0.94 | $0.91 | $-18 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027? | Yes | $500 | $0.91 | $0.40 | $-258 |
| Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31? | No | $500 | $0.97 | $0.98 | $3 |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | No | $500 | $0.62 | $0.63 | $3 |
| Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | $500 | $0.95 | $0.96 | $4 |
| Will Social Democratic Party win the most seats in the Løgting in the 2026 Faroese general election? | No | $500 | $0.95 | $0.97 | $12 |
| Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? | No | $500 | $0.98 | $0.98 | $-0 |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | $500 | $0.74 | $0.76 | $7 |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | No | $500 | $0.32 | $0.33 | $3 |
| Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? | No | $495 | $0.36 | $0.39 | $15 |
| Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? | No | $493 | $0.90 | $0.89 | $-6 |
| Will Our Country (ND) be part of the next Government of Slovenia? | No | $489 | $0.97 | $0.99 | $8 |
| Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more? | Yes | $484 | $0.20 | $0.12 | $-38 |
| Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? | No | $482 | $0.91 | $0.89 | $-12 |
| Will the DHS shutdown last 90 days or more? | Yes | $480 | $0.12 | $0.09 | $-18 |
| U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by March 31? | Yes | $473 | $0.06 | $0.01 | $-23 |
| Will something else than the listed options occur in respect to Fed Chair confirmation and rates? | No | $473 | $0.97 | $0.95 | $-8 |
| Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30? | No | $467 | $0.89 | $0.93 | $16 |
| Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? | No | $464 | $0.79 | $0.76 | $-17 |
| Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2026? | Yes | $463 | $0.16 | $0.08 | $-39 |
| Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | Yes | $451 | $0.72 | $0.54 | $-81 |
| Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1? | No | $451 | $0.91 | $0.99 | $38 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? | No | $443 | $0.63 | $0.60 | $-14 |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | No | $439 | $0.88 | $0.92 | $17 |
| Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | No | $436 | $0.90 | $0.92 | $4 |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? | No | $435 | $0.07 | $0.07 | $-2 |
| Will gas hit (Low) $3.10 by March 31? | No | $435 | $0.97 | $0.99 | $9 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | $434 | $0.69 | $0.78 | $35 |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | $431 | $0.00 | $0.04 | $17 |
| Will Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $427 | $0.95 | $0.95 | $-0 |
| Will Tisza win at least 90 seats? | Yes | $425 | $0.84 | $0.84 | $-2 |
| Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? | No | $412 | $0.96 | $0.95 | $-4 |
| Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by March 31? | No | $412 | $0.97 | $0.99 | $7 |
| Israeli forces enter Beirut by March 31, 2026? | No | $411 | $0.97 | $0.98 | $4 |
| Hurupay FDV above $10M one day after launch? | No | $405 | $0.80 | $0.74 | $-24 |
| US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? | No | $400 | $0.83 | $0.83 | $0 |
| U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31? | No | $400 | $0.93 | $0.94 | $0 |
| Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? | No | $400 | $0.74 | $0.74 | $-2 |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? | No | $400 | $0.77 | $0.78 | $2 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | No | $400 | $0.77 | $0.74 | $-8 |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | No | $400 | $0.79 | $0.69 | $-42 |
| Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026? | No | $400 | $0.81 | $0.81 | $0 |
| Will Justin Bieber drop out as a Coachella 2026 Headliner? | No | $400 | $0.96 | $0.96 | $-2 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? | No | $400 | $0.73 | $0.77 | $14 |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | No | $400 | $0.75 | $0.77 | $10 |
| Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? | Yes | $400 | $0.76 | $0.75 | $-2 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | $400 | $0.80 | $0.80 | $-4 |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31? | Yes | $400 | $0.03 | $0.04 | $2 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? | No | $400 | $0.95 | $0.94 | $-5 |
| Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? | Yes | $400 | $0.62 | $0.45 | $-72 |
| Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? | No | $400 | $0.83 | $0.81 | $-8 |
| Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? | No | $400 | $0.75 | $0.77 | $4 |
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026? | Yes | $400 | $0.72 | $0.72 | $0 |
| Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in March 2026? | Yes | $400 | $0.55 | $0.34 | $-83 |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | $400 | $0.55 | $0.49 | $-22 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | $400 | $0.10 | $0.10 | $4 |
| Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30? | No | $400 | $0.73 | $0.65 | $-34 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Yes | $400 | $0.15 | $0.16 | $2 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on March 25? | Up | $400 | $0.86 | $0.99 | $48 |
| US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel? | No | $400 | $0.74 | $0.71 | $-12 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | No | $400 | $0.96 | $0.92 | $-19 |
| Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | No | $400 | $0.63 | $0.66 | $8 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? | No | $400 | $0.95 | $0.82 | $-50 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | $400 | $0.10 | $0.09 | $-2 |
| Will Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2027? | No | $400 | $0.91 | $0.89 | $-8 |
| Will Iran strike Dimona by April 30? | No | $400 | $0.84 | $0.90 | $22 |
| Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? | No | $400 | $0.34 | $0.33 | $-6 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 25? | Up | $400 | $0.71 | $0.77 | $22 |
| Katy Perry confirmed pregnant by June 30? | No | $400 | $0.93 | $0.94 | $4 |
| Will Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan be arrested in 2026? | No | $400 | $0.85 | $0.48 | $-150 |
| Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 11 be between 80 and 90? | Yes | $400 | $0.98 | $0.98 | $-2 |
| Will Netflix reach $105 in March? | Yes | $400 | $0.55 | $0.11 | $-172 |
| Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | $400 | $0.57 | $0.41 | $-62 |
| Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by April 30? | No | $400 | $0.88 | $0.85 | $-10 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 25? | Up | $400 | $0.82 | $1.00 | $70 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by March 31? | No | $400 | $0.93 | $0.92 | $-6 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | $400 | $0.10 | $0.07 | $-10 |
| Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | No | $400 | $0.93 | $0.93 | $2 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? | No | $400 | $0.97 | $0.98 | $2 |
| Will Beinir Johannesen be the next Løgmaður of the Faroe Islands following the 2026 Faroese general election? | Yes | $400 | $0.93 | $0.90 | $-12 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | No | $400 | $0.88 | $0.65 | $-94 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? | Yes | $400 | $0.28 | $0.48 | $78 |
| Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027? | No | $400 | $0.87 | $0.86 | $-6 |
| Will Russia capture Serhiivka by April 30? | No | $400 | $0.92 | $0.93 | $0 |
| Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win <30 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election? | Yes | $400 | $0.82 | $0.99 | $64 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | $400 | $0.05 | $0.05 | $-2 |
| Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by March 31? | No | $400 | $0.93 | $0.95 | $6 |
| Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026? | No | $400 | $0.73 | $0.58 | $-58 |
| Trump approval Up or Down this week? | Up | $400 | $0.24 | $0.13 | $-46 |
| Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? | No | $400 | $0.43 | $0.39 | $-20 |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on March 27, 2026? | Yes | $400 | $0.18 | $0.07 | $-44 |
| Will Iran strike Oman again in March? | No | $400 | $0.88 | $0.85 | $-14 |
| Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? | No | $400 | $0.51 | $0.51 | $-2 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 26, 2026? | Yes | $400 | $0.95 | $0.94 | $-5 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | Yes | $400 | $0.04 | $0.02 | $-9 |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? | No | $398 | $0.94 | $0.94 | $4 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? | No | $398 | $0.90 | $0.90 | $-0 |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March? | Yes | $396 | $0.49 | $0.36 | $-52 |
| Will Silver (SI) settle at $100-$115 in June? | Yes | $395 | $0.12 | $0.09 | $-12 |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Yes | $395 | $0.64 | $0.56 | $-28 |
| Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | $395 | $0.04 | $0.01 | $-15 |
| Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? | No | $394 | $0.67 | $0.67 | $-2 |
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | No | $394 | $0.92 | $0.94 | $7 |
1h ago
SoldTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?No
$-1K@ 0.811h ago
SoldTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?No
$-3K@ 0.551h ago
BoughtUS forces enter Iran by April 30?No
+$3K@ 0.431h ago
SoldUS x Iran ceasefire by May 31?No
$-1K@ 0.421h ago
BoughtUS escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?No
+$5K@ 0.921h ago
SoldKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?No
$-8K@ 0.941h ago
SoldStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?No
$-1K@ 0.681h ago
SoldIran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?No
$-6K@ 0.891h ago
BoughtWill Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?No
+$1K@ 0.922h ago
BoughtWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?No
+$2K@ 0.882h ago
SoldUS forces enter Iran by December 31?Yes
$-2K@ 0.652h ago
SoldUS recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?No
$-3K@ 0.832h ago
SoldWill Polymarket mindshare hit 85%?No
$-2K@ 0.952h ago
SoldIran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?No
$-9K@ 0.882h ago
BoughtWill China blockade Taiwan by June 30?No
+$1K@ 0.933h ago
BoughtUS x Iran ceasefire by April 30?No
+$2K@ 0.483h ago
SoldWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?No
$-1K@ 0.963h ago
SoldStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?No
$-2K@ 0.643h ago
SoldStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?No
$-1K@ 0.644h ago
SoldWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?Yes
$-2K@ 0.334h ago
BoughtWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in March 2026?Yes
+$1K@ 0.035h ago
SoldWill Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?No
$-2K@ 0.945h ago
SoldMegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?No
$-1K@ 0.495h ago
BoughtUS forces enter Iran by March 31?No
+$2K@ 0.845h ago
SoldWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?Yes
$-4K@ 0.325h ago
BoughtUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?No
+$2K@ 0.816h ago
SoldWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?No
$-8K@ 0.906h ago
SoldIran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?Yes
$-1K@ 0.836h ago
BoughtWill Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026?No
+$8K@ 0.966h ago
SoldWill UK strike Iran by March 31?No
$-2K@ 0.986h ago
BoughtWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No
+$9K@ 0.797h ago
SoldWill Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?No
$-1K@ 0.767h ago
SoldWill US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?No
$-3K@ 0.407h ago
SoldWill María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No
$-1K@ 0.877h ago
BoughtUS-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?No
+$2K@ 0.917h ago
BoughtWill Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026?No
+$2K@ 0.977h ago
BoughtWill Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?Yes
+$2K@ 0.077h ago
BoughtMilitary action against Iran ends on March 30, 2026?No
+$1K@ 0.977h ago
BoughtMilitary action against Iran ends on March 28, 2026?No
+$1K@ 0.987h ago
SoldWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?No
$-2K@ 0.918h ago
BoughtWill Trump visit China by April 30?No
+$1K@ 0.678h ago
SoldKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?No
$-2K@ 0.708h ago
BoughtUS forces enter Iran by April 30?No
+$2K@ 0.498h ago
SoldUS recession by end of 2026?Yes
$-2K@ 0.348h ago
SoldWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?No
$-2K@ 0.928h ago
BoughtWill the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?No
+$2K@ 0.988h ago