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cynical.reason
0x75253f58071564ba95f36258fcfb1e918552cde1
SharpshooterHot Streak
Trader Score
Win Rate: 100.0%
ROI: 0.0%
Trades: 11
Win Rate
100.0%
11W0L11 total
No PnL history available
Not enough data for rank history
Open positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Current | PnL |
|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | Yes | $146K | $0.12 | $0.00 | $-17K |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | No |
Recent Activity (11)
BoughtUS x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Yes
+$146K@ 0.0046d ago
BoughtWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?No
+$40K@ 0.0046d ago
BoughtWill Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?Yes
+$37K@ 0.0046d ago
BoughtWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes
+$35K
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | Yes | $37K | $0.03 | $0.00 | $-996 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | $35K | $0.01 | $0.00 | $-469 |
| Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | $11K | $0.07 | $0.00 | $-756 |
| Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | $9K | $0.11 | $0.00 | $-1K |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | Yes | $8K | $0.13 | $0.00 | $-1K |
| US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? | No | $7K | $0.27 | $0.00 | $-2K |
| Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | $6K | $0.03 | $0.00 | $-160 |
| Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | No | $4K | $0.03 | $0.00 | $-107 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | No | $2K | $0.42 | $0.00 | $-741 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? | Yes | $627 | $0.15 | $0.00 | $-94 |
| Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | Yes | $585 | $0.02 | $0.00 | $-12 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026? | Yes | $497 | $0.05 | $0.00 | $-24 |
| Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? | Yes | $420 | $0.35 | $0.10 | $-105 |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | No | $114 | $0.37 | $0.83 | $53 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | $2 | $0.44 | $0.78 | $1 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | $0 | $0.03 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | $0 | $0.51 | $0.34 | $-0 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | $0 | $0.62 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? | No | $0 | $0.88 | $1.00 | $0 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Yes | $0 | $0.28 | $0.09 | $-0 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | $0 | $0.96 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | $0 | $0.31 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | $0 | $0.36 | $0.67 | $0 |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | No | $0 | $0.87 | $1.00 | $0 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | $0 | $0.53 | $0.42 | $-0 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | $0 | $0.31 | $0.23 | $-0 |
| US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? | No | $0 | $0.76 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | Yes | $0 | $0.04 | $0.04 | $0 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | No | $0 | $0.30 | $0.51 | $0 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | $0 | $0.24 | $0.43 | $0 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | $0 | $0.52 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | $0 | $0.89 | $0.99 | $0 |
| US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? | No | $0 | $0.74 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | $0 | $0.33 | $0.91 | $0 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | No | $0 | $0.30 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | $0 | $0.40 | $0.28 | $-0 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | No | $0 | $0.13 | $0.23 | $0 |
| US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? | No | $0 | $0.92 | $1.00 | $0 |
| US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? | No | $0 | $0.74 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? | No | $0 | $0.74 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $7 million? | No | $0 | $0.07 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | $0 | $0.86 | $0.42 | $-0 |
| Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20? | Yes | $0 | $0.06 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | $0 | $0.54 | $0.88 | $0 |
| US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026? | No | $0 | $0.77 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | Israel | $0 | $0.54 | $0.50 | $-0 |
| US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? | No | $0 | $0.82 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | $0 | $0.17 | $0.01 | $-0 |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31? | No | $0 | $0.65 | $0.98 | $0 |
| US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026? | No | $0 | $0.74 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | $0 | $0.81 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | $0 | $0.97 | $0.98 | $0 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | $0 | $0.94 | $0.99 | $0 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | Yes | $0 | $0.18 | $0.05 | $-0 |
| Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? | No | $0 | $0.61 | $0.94 | $0 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | $0 | $0.99 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | No | $0 | $0.93 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | $0 | $0.99 | $1.00 | $0 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | $0 | $0.53 | $0.78 | $0 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | $0 | $0.44 | $0.23 | $-0 |
@ 0.00
46d ago
BoughtWill the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes
+$11K@ 0.0046d ago
BoughtWill Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No
+$9K@ 0.0046d ago
BoughtTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?Yes
+$8K@ 0.0046d ago
BoughtUS strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?No
+$7K@ 0.0046d ago
BoughtWill Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No
+$6K@ 0.0046d ago
BoughtIran Strike on Israel by February 28?No
+$4K@ 0.0046d ago
BoughtIsrael x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?No
+$2K@ 0.0046d ago