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Top trades, whale moves, and market insights every Monday
Arbguy
0x53e55bc7cb3d67ad177c023ce891ad076a9d6177
@arbguy15SharpshooterHot Streak
Trader Score
Win Rate: 95.2%
ROI: 0.0%
Trades: 21
Win Rate
95.2%
20W1L21 total
No PnL history available
Not enough data for rank history
Open Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Price | Current | PnL |
|---|
| Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | $880K | $0.01 | $0.01 | $-888 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | $298K | $0.23 | $0.21 | $-4K |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Yes | $90K | $0.34 | $0.32 | $-2K |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | $63K | $0.26 | $0.20 | $-4K |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | $61K | $0.57 | $0.57 | $505 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? |
Recent Activity (21)
BoughtWill Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes
+$3K@ 0.0120h ago
SoldKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?No
$-12K@ 0.9320h ago
BoughtKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Yes
+$90K@ 0.291d ago
BoughtWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes
+$63K@ 0.20
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | Yes | $29K | $0.49 | $0.41 | $-2K |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | $24K | $0.22 | $0.14 | $-2K |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | $20K | $0.52 | $0.60 | $2K |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | Yes | $20K | $0.70 | $0.64 | $-1K |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | $18K | $0.50 | $0.52 | $272 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | $17K | $0.24 | $0.17 | $-1K |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | Yes | $17K | $0.29 | $0.07 | $-4K |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | $12K | $0.50 | $0.52 | $177 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | $10K | $0.29 | $0.15 | $-1K |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | Yes | $3K | $0.18 | $0.04 | $-478 |
| Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | Yes | $2K | $0.26 | $0.23 | $-51 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? | No | $2K | $0.80 | $0.99 | $332 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | Yes | $375 | $0.12 | $0.10 | $-9 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Yes | $0 | $0.25 | $0.15 | $-0 |
| Spread: Texans (-1.5) | 49ers | $0 | $0.49 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Oilers vs. Canucks | Canucks | $0 | $0.42 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Bengals vs. Broncos | Bengals | $0 | $0.20 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? | No | $0 | $0.96 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? | Yes | $0 | $0.35 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Cowboys vs. Jets | Cowboys | $0 | $0.47 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | $0 | $0.67 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Solana ETF approved in 2025? | Yes | $0 | $0.97 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Will Matt Van Epps win TN-7 Special Election? | Yes | $0 | $0.86 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | $0 | $0.86 | $0.99 | $0 |
| Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? | No | $0 | $0.71 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Nationals vs. Braves | Braves | $0 | $0.70 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? | Yes | $0 | $0.78 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | Yes | $0 | $0.34 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Georgia vs. Georgia Tech | Georgia Tech | $0 | $0.15 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | $0 | $0.86 | $0.91 | $0 |
| Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Yes | $0 | $0.22 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Yes | $0 | $0.02 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Yes | $0 | $0.15 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will Roy Cooper be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Yes | $0 | $0.03 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | $0 | $0.53 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Yes | $0 | $0.77 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? | Yes | $0 | $0.02 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Yes | $0 | $0.04 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? | Yes | $0 | $0.02 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? | Yes | $0 | $0.02 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August? | No | $0 | $0.54 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| GPT ads by December 31? | No | $0 | $0.89 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Yes | $0 | $0.12 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | $0 | $0.83 | $1.00 | $0 |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | No | $0 | $0.04 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | $0 | $0.10 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? | Yes | $0 | $0.85 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | $0 | $0.47 | $0.32 | $-0 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | No | $0 | $0.75 | $0.99 | $0 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | $0 | $0.98 | $0.99 | $0 |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? | No | $0 | $0.54 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? | Yes | $0 | $0.10 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | No | $0 | $0.36 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | $0 | $0.44 | $0.34 | $-0 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | $0 | $0.12 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Yes | $0 | $0.53 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | No | $0 | $0.86 | $1.00 | $0 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | $0 | $0.89 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? | Yes | $0 | $0.29 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will Kosovo win on 2025-10-10? | Yes | $0 | $0.37 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? | Yes | $0 | $0.19 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | $0 | $0.77 | $1.00 | $0 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | No | $0 | $0.97 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | No | $0 | $0.31 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? | Yes | $0 | $0.21 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? | No | $0 | $0.99 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Yes | $0 | $0.46 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? | Yes | $0 | $0.03 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-10-17? | Yes | $0 | $0.09 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | US | $0 | $0.48 | $0.50 | $0 |
| Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Yes | $0 | $0.02 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? | Yes | $0 | $0.98 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | $0 | $0.84 | $0.91 | $0 |
| Magic vs. 76ers | 76ers | $0 | $0.32 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Yes | $0 | $0.16 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025? | No | $0 | $0.91 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Yes | $0 | $0.21 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? | Yes | $0 | $0.02 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | Yes | $0 | $0.31 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | $0 | $0.01 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | $0 | $0.04 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | $0 | $0.02 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on February 2, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | $0 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | $0 | $0.01 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? | Yes | $0 | $0.13 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | $0 | $0.01 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | $0 | $0.03 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | $0 | $0.02 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | $0 | $0.11 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | Yes | $0 | $0.79 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | $0 | $0.02 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | $0 | $0.03 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | $0 | $0.01 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | $0 | $0.14 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | $0 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? | No | $0 | $0.66 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | $0 | $0.27 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | $0 | $0.59 | $0.80 | $0 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on February 1, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | $0 | $0.01 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? | Yes | $0 | $0.61 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | $0 | $0.01 | $0.00 | $-0 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | $0 | $0.13 | $0.01 | $-0 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | $0 | $0.99 | $1.00 | $0 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | Yes | $0 | $0.02 | $0.00 | $-0 |
1d ago
BoughtUS forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes
+$61K@ 0.561d ago
BoughtUS x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Yes
+$35K@ 0.431d ago
BoughtMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Yes
+$29K@ 0.401d ago
BoughtWill another country strike Iran by March 31?Yes
+$24K@ 0.151d ago
BoughtTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?Yes
+$20K@ 0.571d ago
BoughtClarity Act signed into law in 2026?Yes
+$20K@ 0.681d ago
BoughtWill Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes
+$877K@ 0.011d ago
BoughtTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Yes
+$17K@ 0.121d ago
BoughtIran leadership change by March 31?Yes
+$17K@ 0.071d ago
BoughtKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?No
+$12K@ 0.931d ago
BoughtWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No
+$12K@ 0.531d ago
BoughtWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No
+$10K@ 0.151d ago
Bought Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Yes
+$3K@ 0.051d ago
BoughtWill Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Yes
+$2K@ 0.231d ago
BoughtPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?No
+$2K@ 0.991d ago
BoughtWill the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes
+$18K@ 0.531d ago
BoughtUS forces enter Iran by March 31?Yes
+$298K@ 0.211d ago